期权思想在多阶段项目投资中的应用

本文主要借助期权理论,讨论项目投资分多阶段进行时选择最佳投资的问题.首先通过在单阶段投资下建立项目投资的最佳选择框架,然后展开到项目投资分两个阶段进行的情形上进行讨论分析,得出此情形下的投资选择结论,最后把这一结论扩展到项目投资分多阶段进行的项目上.     

An optimal insurance strategy for an individual under an intertemporal equilibrium

In this paper, we discuss how a risk-averse individual under an intertemporal equilibrium chooses his/her optimal insurance strategy to maximize his/her expected utility of terminal wealth. It is shown that the individual’s optimal insurance strategy actually is equivalent to buying a put option, which is written on his/her holding asset with a proper strike price. Since the cost of avoiding risk can be seen as a risk measure, the put option premium can be considered as a reasonable risk measure. Jarrow [Jarrow, R., 2002. Put option premiums and coherent risk measures. Math. Finance 12, 135-142] drew this conclusion with an axiomatic approach, and we verify it by solving the individual’s optimal insurance problem.     

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS ON BINOMIAL TREE METHODS FOR AMERICAN LOOKBACK OPTIONS

1　IntroductionLookback options are path-dependent options whose payoffs depend on the maximumor the minimum of the underlying asset price during the life of the options( see[6] [1 0 ][1 4] ) .Here the maximum or minimum realized asset price may be monitored either con-tinuously or discretely.An American lookback call( put) option allows to be exercised atany time prior to expiry and gives the holder the rightto buy( sell) atthe historical mini-mum( maximum) of the underlying asset price on ex…     

具限制投资组合和交易费用的博弈未定权益的保值

博弈期权是由kifer(2000)提出的,但就其本质而言,仍是美式期权的一种,只是增加了卖方中止合约的权利.本文主要对连续市场模型中具交易费用和限制投资组合的博弈未定权益的保值问题进行了研究,给出了买卖双方的保值价格和一个无套利区间.     

美式期权定价问题的变网格差分方法

本文提出一种求解美式期权定价自由边值问题的变网格差分方法.通过建立一个自由边界所满足的方程,利用变网格技术可同时求出期权的差分解和最佳执行边界.本文分别讨论了显式和隐式变网格差分格式,并给出了差分解的收敛性和稳定性分析.数值实验表明本文算法是一个非常有效的期权定价算法.     

具有违约风险的人寿保险的最优定价

本文探讨具有违约风险的人寿保险的最优定价.我们从Black-Scholes的期权定价模型出发,考虑风险管理和准备金的要求,根据一次支付和均衡支付这两种不同的假设分别建立两个优化模型,并且借助于优化技术获得最优解.数量化分析结果表明,两个模型的最优价格对于利息率参数以及非索赔成本的变化都不敏感.这说明这两个模型是稳定的,而且是实用的.     

Bayesian parameter inference for models of the Black and Scholes type

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of the mean and volatility of the return of an asset satisfying dS=SdX for some simple models of X. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as well as the likelihood function implied by the observed price history for the underlying. As an application of our framework, we compute the value at risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CVaR) measures for the changes in the price of an option implied by the posterior distribution of the volatility of the underlying. The implied VaR and CVaR are more conservative than their classical counterpart, since it takes into account the estimation risk that arises due to parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于跳-分形模型的美式看涨期权定价

假设股票变化过程服从跳一分形布朗运动,根据风险中性定价原理对股票发生跳跃次数的收益求条件期望现值推导出M次离散支付红利的美式看涨期权解析定价方程,并使用外推加速法求出当M趋于无穷时方程的二重、三重正态积分多项式表达,依此计算连续支付红利美式看涨期权价值.数值模拟表明通常仅需二重正态积分多项式能产生精确价值,而在极实值状态下则需三重正态积分多项式才能满足,结合两种多项式可以编出有效数字程序评价支付红利的美式看涨期权.     

Estimating the Firm Value Distribution Function by Entropy Optimization and Geometric Programming

By applying the option pricing theory ideas, this paper models the estimation of firm value distribution function as an entropy optimization problem, subject to correlation constraints. It is shown that the problem can be converted to a dual of a computationally attractive primal geometric programming (GP) problem and easily solved using publicly available software. A numerical example involving stock price data from a Japanese company demonstrates the practical value of the GP approach. Noting the use of Monte Carlo simulation in option pricing and risk analysis and its difficulties in handling distribution functions subject to correlations, the GP based method discussed here may have some computational advantages in wider areas of computational finance in addition to the application discussed here.     

基于利润—CVaR的期权契约供应链协调

文章以一个风险厌恶销售商与风险中性供应商所组成的两级供应链为背景,以条件风险价值(CVaR)和期望利润的加权平均作为销售商的决策目标,对期权契约下销售商的订购策略及供应链协调问题进行了研究,并对比分析了销售商以CVaR为目标时的情形。在给出销售商在不同风险厌恶程度下的最优订购策略后,文章进一步给出了供应链相应的协调条件,并分析了此时期权权利金,销售商的风险厌恶程度和期望利润权重等参数对供销双方收益的影响,发现“利润-CVaR”法下销售商的风险厌恶程度对供销双方利润的影响与CVaR法下的情况有所不同,但权利金依然起到了分配整体供应链利润的作用,且销售商期望利润权重的增加会降低自身收益水平而提高供应商利润。最后,文章通过数值模拟的方式对上述结论进行了验证。